淮安地区臭氧浓度预报方程的建立与检验 |
Establishment and Test of Ozone Concentration Prediction Equation in Huaian Area |
投稿时间:2023-03-31 修订日期:2024-07-10 |
DOI:10.19316/j.issn.1002-6002.2024.06.09 |
中文关键词: 臭氧 气象因子 臭氧预报 多元回归 |
英文关键词:ozone meteorological factors ozone forecast multiple regression |
基金项目: |
|
摘要点击次数: 279 |
全文下载次数: 102 |
中文摘要: |
通过分析2016—2019年淮安地区近地面臭氧浓度与相关气象因子的变化关系,建立臭氧浓度预报模型,并利用2020年数据对预报模型进行检验。结果表明:有利于高浓度臭氧形成的气象条件是适宜的地面气压和高层位势高度,较高的地面温度和高层温度,适宜的地面相对湿度和高层露点温度差,地面和高层有较小的风速和特定的风向,适宜的总辐射辐照度、较低的总云量和低云量以及长时间的日照。定义高浓度臭氧潜势指数(HOPI)和风向指数(WDI),并结合地面和高层气象因子,建立多指标叠套的臭氧浓度预报方程。利用2020年数据对臭氧浓度预报方程进行检验,发现其预报值与实况值的相关系数为0.83,说明预报方程具有较好的拟合效果和可预报性。 |
英文摘要: |
Based on the analysis of the relationship between near-surface ozone concentration and related meteorological factors in Huaian area from 2016 to 2019,a prediction model of ozone concentration was established,and the prediction model was tested by using the data of 2020. The results showed that the meteorological conditions favorable to high ozone concentration were suitable surface pressure and upper geopotable height,high surface and upper temperature,suitable surface relative humidity and upper dew point temperature difference,small wind speed and specific wind direction between surface and upper level,suitable total radiation irradiance,low total and low cloud cover and long sunshine time. The high concentration ozone potential index(HOPI) and wind direction index(WDI) were defined,and combined with the surface and upper level meteorological factors,the ozone concentration prediction equation with multiple indexes was established. The prediction equation of ozone concentration was tested by using the data of 2020,and it was found that the correlation coefficient between the forecast value and the actual value was 0. 83,indicating that the prediction equation had good fitting effect and forecastability. |
查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |
|
|
|