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臭氧综合指数与臭氧潜势指数的构建与应用
Construction and Application of the Ozone Pollution Meteorological Index and the Ozone Potential Index
投稿时间:2021-07-13  修订日期:2023-03-15
DOI:10.19316/j.issn.1002-6002.2023.04.17
中文关键词:  臭氧污染  臭氧综合指数  臭氧潜势指数  拟合预报
英文关键词:ozone pollution  ozone pollution meteorological index  ozone potential index  fitting and forecast
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602002)
作者单位
张和平 中国地质大学环境学院大气科学系, 湖北 武汉 430078
内蒙古自治区气象台, 内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051 
陈蕾* 中国地质大学环境学院大气科学系, 湖北 武汉 430078 
通讯作者:陈蕾*  中国地质大学环境学院大气科学系, 湖北 武汉 430078  
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中文摘要:
      随着社会经济的快速发展,我国臭氧污染日益严重,因此,研发出能定量评估气象条件对臭氧污染影响程度的诊断指数,成为提高和改善气象服务质量的重要任务之一。利用中国大陆地区2018年温度、总云量、风速、风向、相对湿度等气象场数据与臭氧浓度数据,研究臭氧污染敏感气象条件,统计各气象因子分布在不同数值区间时发生臭氧污染事件的相对频率(即分指数),按照分指数最大值和最小值的差值大小进行排序,筛选出10个与臭氧污染密切相关的气象因子,将10个气象因子的分指数进行累加,即得出臭氧综合指数。随后,对各地构建臭氧综合指数时采用的气象要素进行统计,得到出现频率最高的3个气象要素,并参考这些气象要素构建了臭氧潜势指数。分别以臭氧潜势指数和臭氧综合指数对北京市2019年臭氧日最大浓度建立拟合预报模型,结果表明:两类指数的拟合预报值与实测值有着相似的变化趋势;利用臭氧综合指数计算得到的预报值与实测值的相关系数为0.76,优于利用臭氧潜势指数计算得到的预报值与实测值的相关系数(0.64)。
英文摘要:
      With the acceleration of urbanization,ozone pollution is becoming more and more serious.Developing the meteorological index that can evaluate the impact of meteorological conditions on ozone pollution quantitatively is one of the important tasks to improve the quality of meteorological services.The ozone pollution sensitive meteorological conditions are analyzed by using the temperature,total cloud cover,wind speed,wind direction,relative humidity and ozone concentration data in 2018 in China.Subindexes of any factors are defined as the conditional probability of ozone pollution divided by the climatology probability when the threshold of the parameter is met.The top 10 ozone-pollution-implication factors are chosen by the order that sorted by the difference between the maximum and the minimum of subindexes,of which subindexes are added up as the final meteorological index of ozone pollution.Furthermore,by counting the meteorological factors used by the construction of the meteorological index of ozone pollution in different regions,the top 3 meteorological factors with the highest frequency are obtained,and the ozone potential index is constructed with reference to these meteorological factors.Ozone potential index and ozone pollution meteorological index are respectively used to establish fitting forecast models for the daily maximum ozone concentration in Beijing in 2019.The results show that the fitting forecast results of the two indexes are basically consistent with the actual values.The correlation coefficient between the fitting forecast result and the actual value calculated by the meteorological index of ozone pollution is 0.76,which is better than the correlation coefficient calculated by the ozone potential index (0.64).
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