| 浙江省2001—2021年经济发展与碳锁定形势分析 |
| Analysis of Economic Development and Carbon Lock-in Situation of Zhejiang Province from 2001 to 2021 |
| 投稿时间：2023-04-14 修订日期：2023-12-01 |
| DOI：10.19316/j.issn.1002-6002.2025.01.01 |
| 中文关键词: 碳排放量核算 碳锁定效应 脱钩模型 产业结构转型 |
| 英文关键词:carbon emission estimation carbon lock-in effect decoupling model industrial structure transition |
| 基金项目:宁波市软科学研究计划项目重点项目(2023R004) |
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| 通讯作者:周军* 浙江省宁波生态环境监测中心, 浙江 宁波 315000 |
| 摘要点击次数: 337 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 2001年以来的20余年是浙江省等一批国内较发达地区从工业起飞期递进到工业成熟化发展调整期的转型期,也是本地工业结构从集中于以化石能源系统为核心的高碳产业逐步向多元产业发展的调整期。厘清经济增长对碳排放量增加的依赖程度及其变化趋势,即经济增长的碳锁定形势,对于从碳排放角度深入分析解读浙江省自2001年以来20余年的经济增长内在机理,同时探讨后疫情时代经济复苏情况下可能面临的减排难题,具有重要参考价值。通过重新核算2001—2021年浙江省与全国年碳排放量,在Tapio脱钩模型下分4个发展阶段比较研究了浙江省与全国的碳锁定程度变化趋势,发现浙江省年碳排放量整体呈现逐渐达峰的良好态势,但新冠疫情期间生产需求的增长又导致近期变化趋势出现反弹。因此,经济发展形势与产业结构是影响碳排放变化趋势的最关键因素。同时,展望了未来碳排放总量核算与量化分析技术的发展方向。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Over the past two decades since 2001,Zhejiang Province and other more developed areas in China have undergone a period of transformation from the industrial take-off period to the industrial mature development and adjustment period,and the local industrial structure has gradually shifted from the high-carbon industry centered on the fossil energy system to a more diversified scenario. Evaluating the reliance trend of economic growth on the increase of carbon emissions and its changing trend, that is,the form of carbon lock-in of economic growth, is of great value for analyzing the intrinsic mechanisms of Zhejiang's economic growth in the past 20 years from a carbon emissions perspective, as well as discussing the potential challenges of emission reduction in the " Post-Pandemic Era" economic recovery context. This paper re-calculated the annual carbon emission of Zhejiang Province and China from 2001 to 2021,and compared the change trend of carbon lock-in condition between Zhejiang Province and China in four development stages with the Tapio-Decoupling model. It was found that the annual carbon emissions of Zhejiang Province showed a good trend of gradually peaking,but the growth of production demand during the epidemic period led to a rebound in the recent trend. Therefore,it is pointed out that economic development situation and industrial structure are the most critical factors affecting the trend of carbon emission,and the future research direction of total carbon emission accounting and quantitative analysis technology is prospected. |
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