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空气质量预报在世界互联网大会中的应用
Application of Air Quality Forecast in the World Internet Conference
投稿时间:2019-08-22  修订日期:2020-05-12
DOI:10.19316/j.issn.1002-6002.2020.05.04
中文关键词:  空气质量预报  大气污染管控  数值模式
英文关键词:air quality forecast  air pollution control  numerical mode
基金项目:浙江省环保科研计划项目"浙江省重污染天气应急减排措施的效果研究"(2019A005)
作者单位
王晓元 浙江省环境监测中心, 浙江 杭州 310012 
唐倩 浙江省环境监测中心, 浙江 杭州 310012 
徐圣辰 浙江省环境监测中心, 浙江 杭州 310012 
姚德飞 浙江省环境监测中心, 浙江 杭州 310012 
田旭东 浙江省环境监测中心, 浙江 杭州 310012 
沈叶民 浙江省环境监测中心, 浙江 杭州 310012 
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中文摘要:
      为支持世界互联网大会期间大气污染管控工作,利用人工结合数值模式预报的方式在第二届到第五届世界互联网大会期间开展空气质量预报工作。多模式系统中WRF-CMAQ对乌镇及浙北区域大气污染变化的趋势模拟最好,2016—2018年对AQI日均值模拟的平均分数偏差(MFB)和平均分数误差(MFE)分别为-1.3%~1.6%和24.3%~28.3%。会前48 h、72 h和96 h空气质量等级预报准确率分别为37.5%~83.3%、33.3%~90.0%和0~89.9%。会议期间乌镇的AQI日均值48 h预报准确率为33.3%~100%,等级预报准确率为66.7%~100%。与日常空气质量预报不同,会议期间预报还应重点关注大气污染过程,如有污染可能性,需要给出污染过程的起始时间、持续范围和浓度峰值等情况及其关键时间节点,有针对性地提出大气污染管控的措施建议,为会议期间空气质量保障提供技术支撑。
英文摘要:
      In order to support air pollution control during the World Internet Conference,artificial forecast and numerical air quality model prediction were combined to forecast the ambient air quality during the second to fifth World Internet Conference.In the multi-mode system,WRF-CMAQ was the best model to simulate the trend of air pollution in Wuzhen and North Zhejiang,the mean fractional bias (MFB) and mean fractional error (MFE) of daily AQI in 2016-2018 were -1.3%-1.6% and 24.3%-28.3%,respectively.For the 48 h,72 h and 96 h air quality grade forecasts before the conference,the accuracy rates were 37.5%-83.3%,33.3%-90.0% and 0-89.9%,respectively.During the conference,the 48-hour AQI forecast accuracy was 33.3%-100%,and the air quality grade forecast accuracy was 66.7%-100%.Different from daily air quality forecast,the forecast for the conference also need to focus on air pollution process,and technical support for air pollution control should be provided.The forecast of key time nodes such as the start and end time,the concentration peak time of the pollution process was very important for air pollution control.
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